![]() “We don’t want anyone to do mail-in ballots,” President Trump said in May. This battle plays out in real-time over vote-by-mail. Second, make it difficult for those people who want to vote for Biden to actually do so. Between Biden’s son Hunter’s business dealings, Biden’s perceived softness on China and Biden’s perceived gaffs, he has ammunition. READ: Commentary: Why George Floyd's death could tilt the US election - in Trump's favour READ: Commentary: Can Trump really order the military to move into US cities?įirst, attack Joe Biden viciously so undecided voters or those leaning towards voting for Biden do not vote at all. Yet, his overall approval and national poll numbers have improved.įor Donald Trump to win, he needs to make sure as few people as possible vote for Joe Biden. Amid these difficult three months, Joe Biden has had only limited opportunities to make front page news. While Trump suffers setbacks, his opponent looks real good. READ: Commentary: The US-China relationship just got a lot more complicated Trump claims that but for China, the United States would be experiencing its greatest economy of all time. ![]() But Donald Trump took it into a wholly different direction.Ĭhina was always going to play a major role in the campaign as it permitted him to differentiate himself from Joe Biden and his representation of the past US approach to China.ĬOVID-19’s origins in China coupled with the new national security law in Hong Kong have served up another opportunity for him. True to form, Trump has opted to play to his supporters than to exert global leadership, such as by choosing to destroy US ties with the WHO and painting the organisation as a vessel of China. President Obama began to shift away from that strategy with the Trans-Pacific Partnership. READ: Commentary: Trump fights a two-front war on the coronavirusįoremost on that list lies his xenophobic obsession with China.ĭonald Trump was correct that the bipartisan approach towards China of “engage and accommodate” had run its course and did not produce the results sought. READ: Commentary: Will a US president facing impeachment manufacture a foreign policy crisis? He quickly replays his greatest hits whenever he can, sometimes without any precipitating events or simply as a distraction. He has never missed an opportunity to seize upon breaking events to apply that strategy. His brutal mocking and unanswered attacks on Hillary Clinton helped keep voters who might have voted for her otherwise from going to the polls.įor his entire presidency, the Trump messaging and campaign strategy has blended scapegoating and blame-shifting with grandstanding on accomplishments large and small. In 2016, Trump’s combined anti-establishment rhetoric and conservative positions on social policy appealed to 46 per cent of US voters. Trump won by targeting lower- and middle-class white voters with a message that the system has failed them, the government is against them and all institutions such as the media are their enemy. He will double down on his 2016 playbook of by appealing to the white majority (estimated to be two-thirds of the vote this year) who worry about the unravelling of America while at the same time suppressing the vote of his opponent. To win a second tine, Trump must take advantage of the structural asymmetry of the electoral college which favours states with rural, white populations. A realistic loss in the popular vote could be by 4 to 5 million votes. In big blue states like California and New York, he could lose by better than two to one. There is no chance he wins a majority of the vote this time. Riots across the country.Ī disapproval rating higher at this stage in a presidency than that of any of his post-World War II predecessors.ĭonald Trump had a very narrow path to victory in 2016, but he successfully “threaded the needle” in the electoral college against a historically unpopular opponent while losing the overall vote by nearly 3 million. SINGAPORE: Five months from election day, Donald Trump faces possibly the most daunting challenge ever for a sitting US president running for re-election.Ī collapsing economy.
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